May 27, 2022

One bet for each NBA game tonight: Round 1 player props


NBA playoffs continue on as Round 1 series start to take shape. On this Tuesday slate, we have three games to consider betting on.

There’s prop value to be found in each, so here is one prop pick for all three NBA playoff games tonight.

Trae Young over 2.5 threes made (-140 FanDuel)

Trae Young had himself an extremely disappointing Game 1 performance, shooting 1-12 from the field en route to just 8 points.

On a narrative basis, one has to expect Young to have himself a better game tonight against Miami.

He can’t do much worse, and the spot I’d like to project a bounce-back is with his three-pointers.

The Heat have allowed the ninth-most threes per game this season, and Young certainly shoots. He’s averaging nine attempts per game from deep in his past 10 and is fresh off an 0-7 shooting night from long range.

Young has made 3+ threes in eight of his last 10 games and in three of five games against Miami this year.

Jaren Jackson over 2.5 blocks (+100 DraftKings)

Jaren Jackson had a monster defensive game in the first game of the series between the Grizzlies and Timberwolves, finishing with 7 blocks.

Jackson has now gone for 3+ blocks in three of his last four games and four of five against Minnesota this season.

At even-money, this feels like a trend worth following. He has 15 blocks in his last three games against the Timberwolves, and I expect Memphis to control Game 2 and even this series.

Chris Paul under 16.5 points (-114 FanDuel)

Paul had a huge Game 1 for Phoenix, finishing with 30 points. I can understand if that’s tough to fade, but it feels like the right time to flip the bet and take CP3’s under.

Game 1 was the first game against the Pelicans that Paul has scored more than 15 points in in his last six contests. He’s now 1-for-6 at this points total against New Orleans and has gone over 16.5 points in just 35% of games this season.

I envision a game where Paul gets back to being a facilitator. In three games against the Pels this season, Paul is averaging 14.3 assists. That feels like the better bet to me, so a pivot on this approach would be to take his over on assists, currently set at 10.5.